Rising Power: China Unveils Deep Space Strategy

When it comes to deep space exploration, the United States has been reigning supreme. From the Apollo missions that took us to the Moon to the Voyagers that are now at the edge of the solar system, and from the Martian rovers to the James Webb Space Telescope, the US has left its mark as the cosmic pioneer, collecting more milestones in space than any other country combined. This has given the country a technological advantage and acts as a significant form of soft power—NASA has a widespread and enduring coolness factor (have you ever seen someone wearing an ESA or JAXA t-shirt on the streets?). Indeed, it's difficult to separate the concept of deep space exploration from the U.S., as most sci-fi movies will remind you.

Yet, this is about to change...

No, I am not referring to the current political hubris damaging the country's reputation. Instead, there is a profound transformation taking place within the realm of space exploration, one which the U.S. cannot halt. Here's a brief thought experiment: picture a research station searching for life on Mars or a nuclear-powered mission designed to explore the habitability of Triton, Neptune's moon. Now, envision these missions without a U.S. flag.

It's not that straightforward, isn't it? Rather, these missions might feature a flag with a red background, showcasing a large yellow five-pointed star and four smaller yellow stars aligned in a vertical arc toward the center of the flag. Move over, America. Here comes China.

China has just unveiled its long-term deep space strategy through the social media account of the Deep Space Exploration Laboratory (DSEL), a national-level research institution under the China National Space Administration (CNSA). The strategy is ambitious and wide-ranging, focusing on Mars, Venus, Jupiter's moon Callisto, and Triton. The objective is evident: although the U.S. has secured all the accolades for being the pioneer in sending spacecraft to explore most planetary bodies in our solar system (such as Arrokoth in the Kuiper belt, the most distant object ever closely imaged by a spacecraft), it has yet to earn the most significant accolade of all: discovering life. This is where China aims to be first.

Indeed, the long-term Chinese strategy focuses on habitability and astrobiology. The upcoming missions and programs highlighted in the strategy document represent significant advancements in astrobiology and our understanding of planetary habitability across the solar system. Scheduled for launch around 2028, the Tianwen-3 mission is centered on retrieving samples from Mars, to seek signs of past or current life on the Red Planet. Following this, the Tianwen-4 mission, scheduled for approximately 2029, will target Jupiter and its moon Callisto - my favorite moon! The Habitable Environment Simulator, set to launch around 2030, will serve as an Earth-based platform designed to simulate conditions of planetary habitability, providing valuable insights for future missions. The Venus Sample Return mission, expected in 2033, will investigate the atmosphere of Venus, focusing on its microenvironment and potential for life. The Mars Science Station, anticipated around 2038, will conduct long-term biological and environmental research on the Martian surface, enhancing our understanding of life in extraterrestrial environments. Lastly, the Neptune Mission, projected for 2039, will explore Neptune and its moon Triton, contributing to our knowledge of the habitability of the outer solar system and the characteristics of ocean worlds.

This is an impressive series of missions, especially considering that China has only recently begun to establish itself as an interplanetary power with its own Martian endeavors. The significant missions include Tianwen-1 (2020), launched in July 2020, representing China's inaugural effort to explore Mars. It achieved Martian orbit in February 2021 and deployed the Zhurong rover (imaged below) on the Martian surface in May 2021. The rover conducted diverse scientific investigations, such as examining Martian geology and atmosphere.

Those who question China's capability to undertake complex and expensive missions should note that deep space missions benefit from consistent long-term funding and planning, rather than impulsive changes with each new administration, as happens every four years with the U.S. administration. China is focused on long-term strategies and possesses the political structure to execute them. Secondly, China is benefitting from the second-mover advantage. This advantage refers to the benefits a company or country can gain by entering a market or field after the first mover has established a presence. This advantage allows the second mover to learn from the experiences of the first mover, making improvements and avoiding initial pitfalls. In the technological sector, this often translates to adopting and refining existing technologies rather than developing them from scratch. An example of this can be seen in the smartphone industry, where companies like Apple capitalize on the groundwork laid by other smartphone manufacturers, enhancing features based on consumer feedback and market trends (note that the second-mover advantage doesn't work for software: Google, Amazon, Meta, etc).

China has effectively utilized the second-mover advantage in its lunar and Martian missions, benefiting from the lessons learned by earlier space programs, resulting in successful landings and scientific achievements. For instance, China's Chang'e 4 mission, which landed on the far side of the Moon in 2019, was the first of its kind. It leveraged advanced technologies and methodologies that had been developed through previous missions by other countries.

Naturally, the U.S. continues to hold substantial advantages over China. With decades of space exploration experience, a multitude of top scientists and engineers, and a technological infrastructure like no other, including a booming private space sector and the Deep Space Network—an international array of large radio antennas managed by NASA that supports interplanetary spacecraft missions—it remains poised to lead in space science for the foreseeable future. However, as China intensifies its focus on technology and soft power, expect to see more Chinese flags in deep space, especially where there is liquid water.

Who will be the first to discover evidence of extraterrestrial life within our solar system, if such evidence exists? The race is now underway, and I would be hard-pressed to place my bets.

Image: A 'selfie' taken by China's Zhurong Mars rover during the Tianwen 1 mission. (Image credit: China News Service)